A high probability turn is just that, a high probability. Now there exists methods to isolate the day or week that a daily or weekly top or bottom will likely occur. This is because the market has yet to show that it intends to form a top or bottom at that time. This type of approach is considered to be 'top or bottom picking' and very dangerous to do. However, in an attempt to enter from a major top or bottom early enough requires many to guess. It is common knowledge that the lowest risk entry location with the greatest potential for profits happens to be within points of a new major top or bottom. Lots of low losses can add up to one big loss if the win/loss ratio of such a method is low.
But then if the method has a poor timing model for entry to begin with, you may find that your stop-loss orders get hit more often than not. For example, a method could basically suggest that your stop-loss be no more than x amount of dollars away from your entry to keep the initial entry risk low. Having a low risk entry method of course is not all that is important for trading success. So it is important that the method one chooses to use for entering a trade exposes the trader to low acceptable losses if the trade does not turn out as expected or hoped. If you couple this with the low win-to-loss ratios of many of these systems, you could find yourself in some pretty big drawdowns that may be very discouraging. Some approaches to trade entry, such as many trend following systems expose the trader to potential losses that are quite large on average. There are those with small accounts just trying to get an edge, and there are those whose psyche simply finds exposure to possible large losses unacceptable regardless of how deep their pockets happen to be. Not every trader can or wishes to trade a method that exposes him to excessive risk. What is important when looking for a method of entry is whether the risk exposure is manageable for trader using it. There are plenty of methods available that a trader can use to enter trades.
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